Real estate loans. Will rising loan rejections push market prices down?

It is still too early to really determine the effects of loan denials on the real-estate market French. However, early indicators show a drop in transactions and prices. But professionals expect an acceleration in the coming months.

In its recent economic report, the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim) indicates that it observes “A slowdown in prices since April 2022, with more questionable transaction prices, although they continue to rise.”

On the other hand, the number of transactions at the end of August had not clearly slowed down yet. “The number of offsets is down by only about 1% in the first eight months of the year, indicating that resistance in sales could last at least another two to three months.”specifies the Fnaim.

“Prices are likely to fall”

This could be explained by an acceleration of purchase plans in a context of rising rates. With the condition of Financing requests are accepted by banks.

“As property purchases are correlated with loan supply, prices are likely to fall,” confirms the economist Guillaume Vuillemey.

“The real estate market will land and we should not panic about it”declared in August to the World, Frédéric Violeau, notary of Caen and responsible for national real estate statistics of the Superior Council of Notaries. He even thinks that “The stabilization is welcome and consistent, following the increase in transaction volumes and real estate prices since the end of the first pandemic-related lockdown in mid-2020.”

A risk of blocking the real estate market

Breton notaries have recently made it known that “If the increase in property prices continues, the volume of transactions has decreased significantly since the end of 2021 in Brittany. The margin to obtain credit is shrinking and could cause a blockage of the real estate market in the coming months”, they warn

A sharp drop in prices will be possible, only if there is a massive influx of homes for sale. However, if potential buyers are denied access to credit, households abandon their plans to move. ” As a result, the market will rather freeze »Estimated at the beginning of September in challenges Maël Bernier, spokesperson for the franchise brokerage Best rate.

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